Food industry, Italian food

2025 Oil harvest outlook: an uncertain context, but with opportunities

03/10/2025

2025 Harvest Outlook: An Uncertain Context but with Opportunities
 As we approach the 2025/26 olive oil campaign, analysts forecast a slight decline in production among the leading Mediterranean countries.
It is estimated that the six largest producers (Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Tunisia, and Turkey) could reach around 2.65 million tons of oil in 2025/26, compared with approximately 2.94 million in the previous season.
In Italy, volumes are expected to remain limited due to challenging weather conditions, with estimates around 300,000 tons for the entire national production.
Much of the uncertainty revolves around September–October rainfall, which is crucial for the completion of olive ripening and to ensure healthy fruit set.

In July 2025, Italy continues to register relatively high price levels, supported by limited stocks and steady demand for premium oils. In other Mediterranean countries, prices show signs of stabilization after declines in previous months, though upward pressure persists due to extreme heat and water stress.

Overall, in the first months of 2025 the European Union exported about 67,483 tons of olive oil to non-EU countries (+30.4% year-on-year), of which 70.7% was extra virgin.

Foreign demand is gradually evolving.
In East Asia and Southeast Asia, more and more consumers—especially urban middle- to high-income groups—associate extra virgin olive oil with a healthy lifestyle. According to market research, Japan accounts for about 4.67% of the global olive oil market. Online purchasing and gourmet channels are becoming key drivers in these countries, enabling the distribution of high-end Italian oils even in secondary cities.
In the Middle East (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait), olive oil has long been part of the diet, but demand for superior-quality Italian oils is rising, particularly in major cities, in the hotel & restaurant sector, and among premium health-conscious consumers. The Middle East is estimated to represent around 3–4% of the global olive oil market in 2025.

For foreign markets, the key demographic segments are:

  • urban middle-to high-income consumers focused on health, wellness, and premium nutrition;
  • food lovers and Mediterranean cuisine enthusiasts looking for oils with storytelling (PDO certifications, monocultivar, territorial provenance);
  • B2B/HoReCa (hotels, restaurants, chefs) requiring high-quality oils as distinctive elements in their dishes;
  • gourmet shops, specialized importers, and premium chains able to sustain higher margins for niche products.

In a context of potentially reduced supply, differentiating with higher-quality products (monocultivar, organic, territorial certifications), PDO/PGI certifications, and full traceability will allow producers to secure niche markets.
In addition, packaging formats adapted to local consumption such as smaller bottles, premium design, and convenient formats (single-dose packs, spray bottles) can facilitate purchasing in Asian and Middle Eastern markets.

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Sources:
Olive Oil Times.com
CertifiedOrigins.com
InternationalOilCouncil.org
CognitiveMarketResearch.com